IDA Borrowers See Rising Debt Levels Outpacing Export Earnings
A new analysis from the World Bank’s International Debt Statistics shows that International Development Association (IDA) borrower countries have seen their total external debt rise steadily over the past decade, with liabilities now far outstripping export earnings. The trend raises concerns about debt sustainability in some of the world’s most vulnerable economies.
The chart tracks both total debt stock (blue) and export earnings (orange) for IDA borrowers between 2013 and 2023. In 2013, total debt stock hovered just above US$500 billion, while export earnings were roughly US$450 billion. Over the next ten years, debt rose dramatically, surpassing US$1.1 trillion by 2023, whereas export earnings grew only modestly to about US$600 billion.
The data reveal a widening gap between what these countries owe and what they earn from exports of goods, services, and primary income. While debt almost doubled, export earnings increased by only about one-third, and even dipped noticeably around 2020—likely reflecting the economic shock of the COVID-19 pandemic—before recovering somewhat in subsequent years.
This growing disparity is critical because export revenues are a key source of foreign exchange used to repay external debt. A slower rise in export income compared to debt stock increases the risk of repayment difficulties, especially as global interest rates climb and commodity markets fluctuate.
The World Bank’s figures underscore the importance of balancing borrowing with sustainable revenue streams. While external financing can support infrastructure, social programs, and economic growth, it can also create vulnerabilities if export capacity does not keep pace. The 2023 numbers suggest that IDA borrowers may need to focus on diversifying exports, boosting value-added production, and improving debt management to avoid future fiscal stress.
By highlighting these trends, the World Bank aims to inform policy discussions and encourage measures that strengthen economic resilience in low- and lower-middle-income countries reliant on concessional lending.
