Ethiopia is facing a renewed political and security crisis after fighting intensified in the northern Tigray region and spread into neighbouring areas, raising concerns that the country could once again face a wider conflict.

The latest escalation comes nearly four years after a peace agreement ended the devastating 2020–2022 Tigray war. The new confrontation has placed the relationship between the federal government led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) under renewed pressure.

Tigrayan forces have reported that they are engaged in what they describe as a full-scale war with federal forces. The federal side has given a different account of the events, with government representatives accusing Tigrayan forces and allied groups of launching attacks.

The renewed fighting has affected Tigray as well as parts of the neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions. Tigrayan forces have taken control of several airports, including facilities in Mekelle, while Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to several destinations in the region because of the security situation.

The situation has also affected communications. Reports indicate that internet connectivity has been disrupted across parts of northern Ethiopia, making it more difficult to independently verify developments from areas where fighting is taking place.

The political dimension of the crisis has expanded beyond Tigray. Earlier this month, seven armed and opposition movements announced the formation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival. The groups include the TPLF, Amhara Fano National Movement, Oromo Liberation Army and other regional organisations. The alliance says it seeks political change and the removal of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.

The formation of the alliance represents a significant development because some of its members have previously been involved in conflicts with one another. Their cooperation is therefore being closely watched as the security situation develops.

The Ethiopian government has also raised concerns about possible external involvement. Government representatives have accused Eritrea of providing support to groups opposed to Addis Ababa. Eritrea has denied such allegations. The claims have added a regional dimension to Ethiopia’s internal political and security crisis.

International organisations and foreign governments have called for restraint and de-escalation. The European Union, United Kingdom, African Union and United States have expressed concern over the renewed violence and urged the parties to avoid further escalation and return to political dialogue.

The latest confrontation also threatens the fragile peace established by the Pretoria Agreement, which ended the previous Tigray conflict in 2022. Disputes over territory, political authority, the return of displaced people and implementation of the peace agreement have remained unresolved issues.

The consequences could extend beyond Ethiopia’s borders. The country occupies a strategically important position in the Horn of Africa, a region already affected by conflicts and political tensions involving Sudan, Eritrea and Somalia.

For civilians, renewed fighting raises concerns over displacement, access to food, healthcare, communications and other essential services. The previous Tigray war caused a major humanitarian crisis, and international organisations have warned that a prolonged new conflict could create additional humanitarian needs.

The immediate political challenge for Ethiopia is therefore to prevent the latest fighting from developing into another prolonged national conflict. The government’s position, the demands of the TPLF and allied groups, and diplomatic efforts by regional and international actors will all influence how the situation develops.

As fighting continues to be reported in northern Ethiopia, the political future of the country remains closely connected to whether the parties can restore dialogue and prevent the current escalation from becoming a broader confrontation.