Kamala Harris Gains Edge Over Donald Trump in New Iowa Poll, Driven by Female Voters
In a surprising shift in Iowa’s political landscape, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has narrowly taken the lead over former President Donald Trump, according to a recent Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll. Conducted between October 28 and 31 among 808 likely voters, the survey shows Harris with a 47% to 44% edge over Trump, a notable reversal in a state that Trump won by comfortable margins in both 2016 and 2020. The poll’s margin of error is 3.4 percentage points, highlighting a tight race but still underscoring Harris’s gains, particularly among likely women voters who appear to be driving this shift.
This result marks a significant change from the September Iowa Poll, where Trump held a four-point advantage over Harris. Despite this turnaround, the Trump campaign has labeled the Des Moines Register poll an “outlier.” In a memo from Trump’s chief pollster and data consultant, the campaign pointed to a different poll released on the same day that reflects a contrasting view of Iowa’s voter sentiment.
According to an Emerson College Polling/RealClearDefense survey conducted November 1-2 among a similar number of voters, Trump leads Harris by a substantial 10-point margin. This poll, also with a 3.4 percentage point margin of error, reveals Trump performing strongly with men and independents, while Harris has the support of younger voters, particularly those under the age of 30.
The divergence in poll results underscores the complex and evolving dynamics in Iowa as Election Day draws near. Nationally, the contest between Harris and Trump is proving to be highly competitive, with early voting already underway. Both campaigns are closely monitoring trends in battleground states like Iowa, where shifts among key demographic groups could play a pivotal role in the final outcome.
