India-Canada Diplomatic Row: Short-Term Political Gains for Modi and Trudeau Amid Tensions

The recent expulsion of top diplomats between India and Canada marks a new low in bilateral relations, but it could serve short-term political benefits for both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Canadian counterpart Justin Trudeau. Analysts have highlighted that the unprecedented diplomatic fallout may strengthen the domestic image of both leaders, who are grappling with significant political challenges in their third terms.

On Monday, Canada expelled six Indian diplomats, alleging their involvement in the murder of a Sikh separatist leader on Canadian soil. The Canadian government also accused India of a broader effort to target Indian dissidents living in Canada. In a swift retaliatory move, India ordered the expulsion of six Canadian diplomats. The tit-for-tat action has strained ties between the two nations, casting uncertainty over future cooperation in key areas like trade, security, and education.

However, analysts believe that both Modi and Trudeau could use the situation to their political advantage. Narendra Modi, known for his firm stance on national security, could bolster his image as a leader who defends India’s sovereignty against foreign interference. Harsh Vardhan Shringla, former foreign secretary of India, remarked, “I think people will see the government of India standing up to intimidation and coercive measures applied by a developed country. The public will strongly back Prime Minister Modi and the government.”

In Canada, Trudeau, facing criticism on various fronts, including inflation and public discontent, may also gain support from his base, particularly within communities that view India’s actions as overreach. Trudeau’s tough stance on the issue of human rights and his advocacy for the Sikh community in Canada could resonate with a section of voters ahead of future elections.

India-Canada Relations: A Historical Overview

India and Canada have shared a complex relationship over the decades, marked by both cooperation and tension. Diplomatic ties between the two countries officially began in 1947 when India gained independence from British rule. Initially, relations were warm, with both countries sharing democratic values and a strong Commonwealth connection.

However, the relationship took a downturn in the 1980s following the rise of the Khalistan separatist movement, which sought to create an independent Sikh state in India. Canada became a hub for Sikh diaspora communities, some of whom supported the movement, straining relations with India. The 1985 bombing of Air India Flight 182, which killed 329 people, most of them Canadian citizens of Indian origin, further complicated ties. The attack was linked to Khalistani extremists, leading to decades of mistrust between the two nations.

Despite these tensions, India and Canada have managed to cooperate on various fronts, including trade, education, and energy. Bilateral trade reached new heights in recent years, and Canada has been a major destination for Indian students pursuing higher education. Canada’s vast natural resources, including oil and uranium, have also been key to economic cooperation, with India seeking to diversify its energy sources.

The relationship saw a thaw in the early 2000s, with high-level visits and increased economic engagement. However, the issue of Sikh separatism has continued to cast a shadow over diplomatic relations, with periodic flare-ups like the current one.

Looking Ahead: Uncertain Future for India-Canada Relations

The recent expulsion of diplomats and the broader allegations by Canada have brought underlying tensions to the surface. While both Modi and Trudeau might see short-term political gains, the long-term impact on India-Canada relations could be significant. The two countries will need to navigate these tensions carefully to avoid jeopardizing years of progress in economic and cultural exchanges.

With the stakes high for both leaders, it remains to be seen whether this diplomatic spat will escalate further or if there will be efforts to de-escalate and restore normalcy. Both countries stand to lose if the situation spirals out of control, as key sectors like trade, tourism, and education are closely tied to the well-being of both nations’ citizens.