Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is seeking a potentially historic victory in the Saxony-Anhalt state election, with the party entering Sunday’s vote well ahead of its main political rivals.

The election has become a major test of the AfD’s growing influence in German politics. Polling has placed the party at around 40% support, significantly ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which has been polling at roughly 23%.

A decisive AfD victory could have implications beyond Saxony-Anhalt. The party is attempting to translate its strong electoral support into governing power at the state level, something Germany’s established parties have sought to prevent through their longstanding refusal to cooperate with the AfD.

The contest is being closely watched because a strong performance could strengthen the AfD’s ambitions ahead of Germany’s 2029 federal election. If the party fails to win an outright majority, the formation of a governing coalition could become complicated, particularly if smaller parties struggle to cross the parliamentary threshold.

For the CDU, the election represents another important test of voter confidence in Merz’s government. A CDU-led coalition remains a possible outcome if the AfD cannot secure sufficient support to govern independently.

The first results are expected after polling stations close, potentially providing an early indication of whether the AfD can convert its polling advantage into a landmark state-level breakthrough.