WASHINGTON: The next major geopolitical struggle may not be fought over oil alone.

A new competition is rapidly developing around the minerals needed to build electric vehicles, batteries, artificial intelligence infrastructure, advanced electronics, renewable-energy systems and modern weapons.

These materials are commonly called critical minerals.

Lithium, cobalt, graphite, nickel, copper and rare-earth elements may look like ordinary raw materials, but control over their mining, processing and refining has become a strategic issue for governments around the world.

What Are Critical Minerals?

Critical minerals are raw materials that are extremely important to modern economies and national security but whose supply chains can be vulnerable to disruption.

They are used in products ranging from smartphones and electric vehicles to fighter aircraft, wind turbines and advanced computer systems.

The International Energy Agency says critical minerals have moved to the centre of energy, economic and national-security policy as countries try to make their supply chains more resilient.

The most important feature is not simply whether a mineral exists underground.

The bigger question is:

Who controls the mining, processing and manufacturing stages?

Why Is Lithium Important?

Lithium is one of the most important materials in the global electric-vehicle revolution.

It is a key component of rechargeable batteries used in:

• Electric cars
• Mobile phones
• Laptops
• Battery-storage systems
• Renewable-energy projects
• Other electronic devices

As countries attempt to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, demand for batteries is increasing.

That makes reliable access to lithium strategically important.

But lithium supply chains can be vulnerable because mining, chemical processing and battery manufacturing are concentrated in particular countries and companies.

Why Is Cobalt Important?

Cobalt is another major battery material.

It has traditionally been used in lithium-ion battery cathodes because of its contribution to battery performance and stability.

Cobalt is particularly interesting geopolitically because the mining and refining chain is highly concentrated.

The Democratic Republic of Congo is the world’s dominant source of mined cobalt, while China has a major role in processing the material. U.S. Geological Survey data show that Congo accounted for roughly three-quarters of global cobalt mine production in recent years.

This creates a supply-chain vulnerability.

A disruption in one major producing region can affect manufacturers far away.

Why Are Rare Earths Different?

Rare earths are a group of 17 elements.

They are not necessarily rare in the Earth’s crust.

The real difficulty is extracting, separating and processing them economically at industrial scale.

Some rare earths are particularly important for high-performance permanent magnets.

These magnets are used in:

• Electric motors
• Wind turbines
• Robotics
• Aerospace systems
• Defence equipment
• Advanced electronics

The IEA estimates that China currently accounts for around 60% of mined magnet rare-earth production, more than 90% of refining and nearly 95% of permanent-magnet production.

That concentration gives processing capacity enormous strategic importance.

Why Is China So Important?

China has developed an extensive critical-minerals ecosystem covering mining, refining, processing and manufacturing.

This means that even countries with their own mineral deposits may still depend on Chinese processing facilities.

That is one of the biggest reasons governments in the United States, Europe, Japan and other regions are attempting to diversify supply chains.

The concern became particularly visible after Chinese export restrictions created difficulties for manufacturers outside China.

The IEA has warned that a full implementation of certain rare-earth export controls could put as much as $6.5 trillion of economic activity outside China at risk each year.

Why Are Critical Minerals Becoming a Geopolitical Issue?

There are three major reasons.

1. Technology Depends on Them

Modern technology cannot easily function without specialised minerals.

An electric vehicle requires battery materials.

A wind turbine can require rare-earth magnets.

Advanced defence systems use specialised metals.

Semiconductor and electronics industries also depend on a range of critical materials.

Therefore, mineral security is increasingly connected to technological security.

2. Supply Is Concentrated

Mining and processing are not evenly distributed around the world.

The OECD reports that the top three producing countries account for more than two-thirds of global production for cobalt, lithium and nickel, while concentration rises to nearly 90% for rare-earth elements.

This concentration makes the global economy vulnerable to export restrictions, political instability, trade disputes and transportation disruptions.

3. Building New Supply Takes Time

A new mine cannot simply be switched on overnight.

Developing a major mineral project can require years of exploration, environmental approvals, financing, construction and infrastructure development.

Processing facilities can take years as well.

That means countries cannot quickly replace an established supply chain after a disruption.

Could Critical Minerals Become the “New Oil”?

In some respects, yes.

Oil transformed global geopolitics during the 20th century because access to energy was essential for transportation, industry and military power.

Critical minerals could play a similar strategic role in the 21st century.

The difference is that these minerals are particularly important for the electrification and digitalisation of the economy.

Instead of controlling fuel supplies, countries increasingly want to control access to the raw materials required for batteries, magnets, electronics and advanced industrial systems.

Why Are the United States and Europe Trying to Diversify?

Governments do not want their industries to become dependent on a single foreign supplier for materials essential to national security.

As a result, countries are supporting:

• New mines
• Domestic refining
• Recycling
• Strategic stockpiles
• International partnerships
• Alternative suppliers
• New processing technologies

The United States has increasingly treated critical minerals as a national-security issue, while European and Asian governments are pursuing similar supply-chain diversification strategies.

A recent U.S. initiative involving a proposed $12 billion critical-minerals stockpile illustrates how governments are attempting to build greater supply security, although defence-industry groups have warned that large government purchases could also push prices higher.

What About Recycling?

Recycling could become one of the most important long-term solutions.

Old electric-vehicle batteries, electronic devices, solar panels and other technologies contain valuable materials.

Instead of extracting everything from new mines, companies can recover materials from products that have reached the end of their useful life.

Recent analysis suggests recycling could eventually supply a significant portion of global demand for lithium, nickel and cobalt.

That would not eliminate the need for mining, but it could reduce pressure on new resources and make supply chains more resilient.

Why Does India Care About Critical Minerals?

India’s growing electric-vehicle industry, renewable-energy expansion, electronics manufacturing and defence sector all increase the importance of secure access to critical minerals.

India is therefore looking at domestic resources as well as international partnerships.

Rare-earth supply chains are particularly important because the materials are needed for advanced manufacturing and defence technologies.

Reducing dependence on a limited number of foreign suppliers could become an important part of India’s long-term industrial strategy.

Could a Mineral Shortage Stop Electric Vehicles?

A serious shortage of a key mineral could increase battery and vehicle manufacturing costs.

It could also delay production if manufacturers cannot obtain specialised components.

However, manufacturers are actively developing technologies that reduce or eliminate the need for certain materials.

Battery chemistry is changing rapidly, and companies are investing in alternative materials.

That means today’s critical mineral may not remain equally important forever.

What Happens If Countries Start Fighting Over Minerals?

The competition could take several forms.

Countries could impose export restrictions.

Governments could provide subsidies to domestic producers.

Companies could compete aggressively for mining projects.

Strategic stockpiles could become larger.

Trade agreements could increasingly include mineral-security provisions.

And governments could treat mining investments as national-security decisions rather than purely commercial transactions.

Recent corporate deals in the mining sector already demonstrate how critical minerals are becoming entangled with geopolitical considerations.

The Bigger Picture

The global race for critical minerals is changing the meaning of resource security.

In the past, energy security largely meant securing oil and gas.

In the coming decades, it may also mean securing lithium for batteries, rare earths for magnets, cobalt and nickel for industrial applications, copper for electricity networks and specialised materials for advanced technologies.

The countries that successfully build diversified supply chains could gain an important economic and strategic advantage.

The countries that remain dependent on a small number of suppliers could face greater vulnerability during geopolitical crises.

The future competition, therefore, may not simply be about who has the minerals underground.

It will increasingly be about who can mine, refine, process, recycle and manufacture them at scale.