The Caspian’s retreat is not simply a matter of a shoreline shifting a few metres. In the Kazakh sector, recorded water levels fell from approximately 26.82 metres below global mean sea level in 1996 to 29.27 metres below it in 2025. These measurements indicate a decline of about 2.45 metres over that period.

The northern Caspian is especially vulnerable because its seabed is relatively flat and shallow. When the water level drops, the edge of the sea can move a considerable distance, exposing large stretches of previously submerged land.

The Caspian has experienced rising and falling water levels in the past. The current concern is whether continued warming, changing precipitation and alterations to river flows will intensify the decline and place increasing pressure on the surrounding environment.

Climate Change and Water Use Add to the Pressure

The Caspian’s water balance depends largely on river inflows, precipitation and evaporation. More than 80% of the river water entering the sea comes from the Volga, making changes in this river system particularly important.

Higher temperatures can increase evaporation from the sea’s surface. Changes in rainfall and snowfall can also affect the amount of freshwater reaching the basin. At the same time, dams, reservoir operations and water withdrawals for agriculture and other uses influence river flows.

These factors interact, making it difficult to attribute every change to a single cause. Scientists therefore use observations, climate projections and hydrological models to investigate how the sea may respond under different future conditions.

Caspian Seals Face a Changing Habitat

The environmental consequences extend beyond the appearance of new islands. The Caspian seal, a species found nowhere else in the world, depends on suitable coastal and ice-covered habitats for important stages of its life cycle.

As water retreats, some islands used by seals can become connected to the mainland or change in size and shape. Such changes may reduce the isolation of resting areas and expose animals to greater human disturbance.

Winter ice is another concern. Caspian seals give birth on ice, and warmer conditions that reduce the availability or stability of ice can threaten breeding success. The combined effects of habitat changes, fishing activity, pollution and other pressures make the species’ conservation an important regional issue.

The transformation of shallow coastal waters may also affect wetlands, fisheries, shipping routes and port infrastructure. Communities that depend on the Caspian could face growing costs as coastlines move and access to water changes.

Could the Northern Caspian Follow the Aral Sea’s Path?

Scientists have warned that some shallow parts of the northern Caspian could experience severe drying if the decline continues. Comparisons with the Aral Sea highlight the potential scale of ecological disruption, but the two water bodies are not identical.

The Aral Sea underwent a catastrophic contraction largely associated with the diversion of rivers for irrigation. The Caspian has a different hydrological system and includes much deeper central and southern basins. Consequently, a similar outcome across the entire Caspian cannot be assumed.

The northern section, however, is particularly exposed because its shallow seabed means that a relatively modest fall in water level can leave extensive areas dry. Future outcomes will depend on climate conditions, river inflows, water use and the extent of the decline.

Regional Cooperation Will Be Essential

Because the Caspian is shared by Kazakhstan, Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkmenistan, its future cannot be addressed by one country alone. Monitoring water levels, exchanging scientific data and coordinating environmental protection measures will be important for understanding and managing the changes.

Potential responses include improving water-use efficiency, assessing the effects of dams and withdrawals, protecting vulnerable habitats and adapting ports and coastal infrastructure to changing conditions. Scientists also need continued observations to distinguish temporary fluctuations from longer-term trends.

The newly exposed island near Kulaly Island offers a striking illustration of a much larger process. What appears to be the emergence of new land is also evidence of a changing aquatic environment. Whether these exposed areas remain islands or later connect to the shore will depend on local seabed conditions, waves, wind and future water levels.

The central challenge is not simply the appearance of new islands. It is whether the countries surrounding the Caspian can limit the environmental damage, protect unique wildlife and prepare coastal communities for a sea whose boundaries may continue to change.