The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that the developing El Niño event could reach exceptional strength toward the end of 2026, with sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific forecast to rise approximately 3.7°C above normal during October–December.

The projection points to a potentially record-breaking climate event, exceeding the previous peak anomaly of approximately 2.6°C recorded during November 2015–January 2016, according to the WMO’s seasonal climate update. <Cite refs={[“turn986992search0″,”turn986992search2”]}/>

The forecast has drawn attention to the possibility of widespread changes in weather patterns, including increased risks of extreme heat, drought and heavy rainfall in different parts of the world. The precise effects will vary by region, and a strong El Niño does not mean that every location will experience the same conditions.

What the Forecast Reveals About Pacific Ocean Warming

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon associated with unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It is part of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, a climate system involving interactions between ocean temperatures and the atmosphere.

Scientists monitor the phenomenon using indicators such as the Niño 3.4 index, which measures sea-surface temperature departures from normal conditions across a designated section of the equatorial Pacific.

According to the WMO, the index’s seasonal average increased from approximately 1.6°C above normal in June 2026 to 2.5°C above normal in August. Forecast models indicate that the anomaly could reach around 3.7°C during the final quarter of the year, with the event expected to peak around December. <Cite refs={[“turn986992search0″,”turn986992search3”]}/>

A temperature anomaly represents the difference between an observed or forecast temperature and a reference average. Therefore, a projected anomaly of 3.7°C does not mean that the Pacific Ocean’s absolute temperature will be 3.7°C. It means the relevant sea-surface temperature index is forecast to be that much warmer than its baseline.

The projection remains a forecast, rather than a confirmed measurement for the entire October–December period. Scientists will continue comparing observations with model predictions as the season progresses.

Why an Intensifying El Niño Matters

The tropical Pacific plays an important role in the global climate system. Changes in ocean temperatures can alter atmospheric circulation, influencing winds, cloud formation, rainfall and temperature patterns far beyond the region where the warming occurs.

During a strong El Niño, some regions may face elevated drought risks, while others may experience heavier rainfall and flooding. The event can also increase the likelihood of unusually high temperatures in many parts of the world.

The WMO’s October climate update indicates that above-average temperatures are likely across extensive areas during October–December. However, these seasonal outlooks describe probabilities and broad patterns, not precise weather conditions for every city or country. <Cite refs={[“turn986992search0″,”turn986992search8”]}/>

For communities already dealing with heat stress, water shortages or vulnerable infrastructure, the added influence of El Niño could complicate preparations for the coming months.

Potential Consequences for Agriculture and Water Resources

Changes in rainfall and temperature can have direct consequences for farming. Crops depend on appropriate moisture levels and temperature conditions at different stages of growth, while prolonged heat and drought can increase irrigation requirements and place pressure on water supplies.

In areas where rainfall becomes deficient, farmers may face reduced soil moisture, lower reservoir levels and uncertainty over planting schedules. Conversely, regions experiencing unusually heavy precipitation may encounter waterlogging, soil erosion and damage to agricultural infrastructure.

The effects on food production will depend on local conditions, crop varieties, irrigation access and the timing of the weather changes. A strong El Niño does not automatically produce a global food shortage, but it can increase risks in locations where agriculture is already exposed to climate variability.

Water managers and agricultural authorities can use seasonal forecasts to review reservoir operations, prepare drought-response measures and communicate potential risks to farming communities.

Implications for Disaster Preparedness

The possibility of a powerful El Niño also reinforces the importance of early warning systems and regional disaster planning.

Authorities may need to prepare for several different hazards, depending on their geographic location. Drought-prone areas may require water-conservation measures, while communities exposed to intense rainfall may need to check drainage systems, flood defences and emergency response arrangements.

Public health services can also prepare for periods of elevated heat by communicating safety guidance and ensuring that vulnerable people have access to support.

Because El Niño influences large-scale climate patterns rather than determining individual weather events, national meteorological agencies remain essential sources of local forecasts and official warnings. Monitoring updated information can help governments and communities adapt their preparations as conditions change.

A Record Forecast Requires Continued Monitoring

The projected 3.7°C anomaly would represent an extraordinary level of warmth for the Niño 3.4 region if realised. Its comparison with the 2015–2016 event highlights the potential scale of the developing climate pattern.

Nevertheless, the strength of an El Niño event can be assessed using different indices and reference periods. The precise value should therefore be interpreted in the context of the measurement method used by the forecasting agency.

The WMO and national climate agencies will continue monitoring ocean conditions and updating their assessments. Observations collected during the coming months will help establish how closely actual temperatures follow the forecast.

The central concern is not simply whether a historical record is broken. It is how the resulting climate patterns may affect communities, ecosystems, agriculture and water supplies, and whether sufficient time remains to prepare.

With the forecast pointing toward exceptionally warm Pacific waters late in 2026, timely climate information and practical risk-reduction measures will be important in limiting potential harm. The eventual regional impacts will depend on how the event develops and how its influence interacts with local environmental conditions.