The world has lost the opportunity to prevent global warming from exceeding the 1.5°C limit without a significant overshoot, according to a major climate assessment released by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The report warns that decades of insufficient action have pushed the planet towards a period of higher temperatures, increasing the risks of extreme weather, environmental damage and pressure on vulnerable communities.

Published on October 21, 2026, the Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return says the immediate priority must be to keep the temperature increase as low and short-lived as possible before bringing it back to 1.5°C by the end of the century.

The report does not suggest that climate action has become pointless. Instead, it stresses that rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions could still prevent a much larger temperature overshoot.

Global emissions need to fall sharply

UNEP estimates that global greenhouse gas emissions must decline by 18 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040, compared with 2025 levels, to follow the lowest possible 1.5°C overshoot pathway.

These reductions would require countries to move much faster than their current climate commitments indicate.

If all existing national climate pledges are fully implemented, emissions would fall by only around 5–8 per cent by 2030 and 11–15 per cent by 2035, relative to 2025 levels.

The difference between the reductions required and those promised by governments highlights the scale of the global emissions gap.

Temperature projections remain alarming

The report presents several possible climate scenarios depending on how quickly countries reduce emissions.

Under current policies, global warming could reach approximately 2.8°C during this century. If countries fully implement their existing national climate pledges and continue similar efforts, the projected rise could be around 2.6°C.

Even in a more optimistic scenario that includes additional net-zero commitments, warming could reach approximately 2.1°C.

These projections remain above the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal and underline the need for stronger climate policies.

Every additional fraction of a degree matters because higher temperatures increase the risks of heatwaves, intense rainfall, droughts, wildfires and damage to natural ecosystems.

Renewable energy offers an important opportunity

Despite the warning, UNEP identifies the rapid expansion of renewable energy as one of the strongest opportunities for reducing emissions.

Solar and wind power have grown significantly since the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015. The report says global renewable electricity capacity has expanded faster than earlier expectations, showing that large-scale energy transitions are possible.

However, the progress needs to accelerate further.

Countries must expand renewable energy generation, improve energy efficiency and reduce dependence on coal, oil and gas. The report also calls for stronger action to reduce methane emissions and protect forests.

According to UNEP’s proposed pathway, the world needs to reduce the share of coal, oil and gas in total energy supply by at least 55 per cent, 15 per cent and 5 per cent respectively by 2035, compared with 2025 levels.

Climate risks could become more severe

A prolonged period of warming above 1.5°C could increase pressure on several environmental systems.

Mountain glaciers and ice sheets could experience further losses, while thawing permafrost may release additional greenhouse gases. Ocean circulation patterns and coral reef ecosystems could also face growing risks.

For people, the consequences could include greater exposure to extreme heat, water shortages, crop losses, coastal flooding and climate-related displacement.

Developing countries and vulnerable communities may face particularly serious challenges because they often have fewer financial and technological resources to prepare for climate impacts.

Carbon removal will also be necessary

The report says reducing emissions alone may not be sufficient to bring global temperatures back below 1.5°C after an overshoot.

Large-scale removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, followed by its permanent storage, may also be required.

UNEP estimates that the lowest possible 1.5°C overshoot pathway could require removing and permanently storing approximately 320 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide over the course of this century.

However, the organisation cautions that the economic, technological and practical challenges associated with carbon removal make this outcome uncertain.

This means reducing emissions at their source must remain the main priority rather than relying on future carbon-removal technologies.

A narrow window remains for stronger action

The 2026 assessment sends a serious warning to governments ahead of the next round of international climate negotiations. UNEP argues that successful climate policies already implemented in different countries need to be expanded and maintained on a much larger scale.

The organisation points to evidence from more than 220 policy evaluations showing that measures such as clean-energy expansion, carbon pricing and other climate policies can reduce emissions.

The central challenge is now implementation. Governments must translate climate commitments into measurable reductions across electricity generation, transport, industry, agriculture and land use.

The 1.5°C goal without a significant overshoot may have moved beyond reach, but the future level of warming is still influenced by decisions made today. UNEP’s message is clear: every tonne of emissions avoided can help limit the damage and improve the chances of bringing global temperatures back down in the long term.