Washington: Artificial intelligence could become a significant driver of economic growth across Sub-Saharan Africa if countries move quickly to expand digital infrastructure, improve access to electricity, develop skills and accelerate adoption, according to a new analysis by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The IMF’s 2026 study, “Unlocking the Potential: AI in Sub-Saharan Africa,” examines how artificial intelligence could influence productivity and economic growth across the region. The research finds that the size of the potential benefit will depend heavily on how quickly countries can overcome existing infrastructure and skills constraints.

AI’s Potential Could Reach 4% of GDP Over a Decade

The IMF estimates that under current conditions, AI could have only a modest impact on productivity because adoption remains limited and many economies face shortages of reliable electricity, digital connectivity and technical skills.

However, the picture changes substantially under a faster-adoption scenario.

If AI spreads more rapidly across businesses and sectors, while countries improve the conditions needed for its use, the IMF estimates that productivity gains could reach about 2.1% over the next decade. The resulting overall effect on GDP could reach approximately 4% cumulatively over the same period, equivalent to nearly half a percentage point of additional annual real GDP growth.

Agriculture Could Be a Major Beneficiary

Agriculture could play an especially important role in delivering AI-related gains.

The IMF notes that AI-powered advisory services can help farmers make better decisions about crop management, pest control and climate resilience. Early applications in countries including Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya, Mali, Nigeria and Rwanda have demonstrated potential for improving agricultural outcomes.

Because agriculture employs a large share of the region’s workforce and productivity remains relatively low in many agricultural economies, even modest improvements could have a significant effect on incomes and overall economic output.

Healthcare and Education Also Offer Opportunities

The potential benefits extend beyond farming.

In healthcare, AI-based decision-support systems could help medical professionals improve diagnosis and treatment in areas where trained personnel are scarce. The IMF points to early evidence from Kenya as an example of how such technologies could improve healthcare delivery.

Education is another promising area. AI-powered tutoring systems could help students access personalized learning support, particularly where teacher shortages or limited educational resources remain challenges.

Infrastructure Remains a Critical Barrier

Despite the opportunity, the IMF warns that AI adoption cannot expand at scale without basic infrastructure.

Unreliable electricity, expensive or limited internet connectivity, shortages of skilled workers and weak institutional capacity can all prevent businesses and governments from effectively using advanced digital technologies.

This means that investment in AI itself may not be enough. Countries also need to strengthen the underlying systems that allow AI applications to function.

Risk of a Widening Digital Divide

The IMF highlights an important risk: countries that adopt AI rapidly could gain productivity advantages, while economies that remain behind could see the gap with more advanced economies increase.

Current estimates suggest that roughly four-fifths of jobs in Sub-Saharan Africa have limited exposure to AI. While this means the region may face less immediate disruption from automation, it also means that many workers may not yet be positioned to benefit directly from AI-driven productivity improvements.

The region’s rapidly growing working-age population makes this issue particularly important. The IMF estimates that by 2030, Sub-Saharan Africa could account for roughly half of new entrants into the global labour force.

Policies Could Determine the Outcome

The IMF argues that the region’s AI future is not predetermined. Governments can influence the outcome through policies that expand electricity access, improve broadband infrastructure, develop digital and technical skills, encourage investment and establish appropriate regulatory frameworks.

The region has previously demonstrated an ability to leapfrog older technologies. The rapid expansion of mobile communications is one example in which countries bypassed traditional fixed-line systems and adopted newer technology at scale.

A similar transformation could occur with AI if the necessary foundations are established.

A New Opportunity for African Economies

The IMF’s analysis presents artificial intelligence as both a challenge and an opportunity for Sub-Saharan Africa. The technology could help countries improve productivity, strengthen public services, modernize agriculture and expand access to knowledge.

But capturing those benefits will require more than simply adopting AI tools. Reliable power, affordable connectivity, skilled workers, investment and effective institutions will be essential to turning technological potential into sustained economic growth.

With the right policies and faster adoption, the IMF estimates that AI could make a meaningful contribution to Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic development over the coming decade.

Key Highlights:

• AI could significantly increase productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa.
• A high-adoption scenario could generate around 4% cumulative GDP growth over a decade.
• Agriculture could be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
• Healthcare and education could also gain from AI applications.
• Electricity, internet access and skilled workers remain major constraints.
• Faster adoption could help the region close productivity gaps with other economies.