Global Food Security Faces Fresh Pressure as Climate, Conflict and Rising Input Costs Collide

The world’s food system is entering a period of renewed uncertainty as extreme weather, geopolitical conflicts, fertilizer shortages and higher agricultural costs begin to put pressure on crop production and food prices.

Global food supplies are not currently facing an immediate worldwide shortage, but the resilience of the food system is being tested by several risks arriving at the same time. The World Bank says global food and nutrition security remains fragile, with supply chains and higher production costs continuing to influence food prices. Major cereal production is also expected to fall from the record levels recorded in 2025.

Food Prices Begin Moving Higher

The latest figures from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization show that the FAO Food Price Index averaged 131.1 points in July 2026, up 0.6% from June and 1% higher than a year earlier.

Cereals were among the biggest sources of upward pressure. The FAO Cereal Price Index climbed 3.4% in July, while international wheat prices increased 5.8% during the month. Disruptions to Black Sea exports and concerns about weather-related crop damage contributed to the increase.

The change is significant because cereals such as wheat, maize and rice form a central part of diets across much of the world.

Fertilizer Costs Add Another Challenge

Farmers are also dealing with higher input costs. According to the World Bank’s June food-security update, fertilizer prices during the first five months of 2026 were 35% higher than during the same period in 2025.

Fertilizer availability is particularly important because farmers depend on nitrogen, phosphate and other nutrients to maintain crop yields. If prices remain elevated, some producers may reduce fertilizer applications or switch to crops requiring fewer inputs, potentially affecting future harvests.

El Niño Could Increase Agricultural Risks

Weather is another major uncertainty.

The World Bank has warned that the emergence and possible strengthening of El Niño could disrupt rainfall patterns in several important agricultural regions. South Asia, Southern Africa and parts of East Asia are among the areas exposed to potential effects.

The bank’s June assessment estimated a 61% to 87% probability of El Niño emerging by mid-2026 and continuing into 2027. In affected regions, rice production could potentially decline by 20% to 50%, depending on the severity and geographic reach of the weather event.

A strong El Niño can produce very different weather outcomes from one region to another, including drought in some agricultural zones and excessive rainfall elsewhere.

Conflict Is Disrupting Grain Markets

Geopolitical tensions are adding another layer of risk.

The Black Sea remains a crucial export corridor for agricultural commodities, but attacks on ports, vessels and grain infrastructure have disrupted shipments. Recent market reports indicate that global wheat buyers are searching for alternative supplies as cargoes from the region face delays and cancellations.

Chicago wheat futures had risen by more than 17% since the beginning of July by August 20, according to Reuters reporting. Countries heavily dependent on Black Sea wheat are particularly exposed to the disruption.

The situation demonstrates how a conflict in one region can quickly affect food markets thousands of kilometres away.

Why Energy Prices Matter for Food

Modern agriculture depends heavily on energy.

Fuel is required to operate farm machinery, transport crops and process food. Natural gas is also a major feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer production.

The disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has therefore created concerns beyond the energy sector. Higher oil, gas and fertilizer costs can eventually pass through agricultural supply chains and reach consumers.

The FAO has warned that commodity-cost increases can take several months to reach retail food prices, meaning the full impact of current disruptions may appear later rather than immediately.

Food Insecurity Remains a Global Problem

The latest UN assessment shows that food insecurity remains widespread even though global conditions improved modestly in 2025.

The 2026 edition of The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World estimates that 7.8% of the world’s population experienced hunger in 2025, while approximately 2.1 billion people experienced moderate or severe food insecurity.

The report also highlights the affordability of nutritious diets as a major challenge, particularly in Africa, where around two-thirds of the population cannot afford a healthy diet.

These figures show that food security is not simply about whether enough food exists globally. Access, affordability, transportation and household purchasing power are equally important.

The World Still Has Important Buffers

Despite the growing risks, the global food system has several protective factors.

Agricultural productivity has increased substantially over recent decades, while major exporting countries maintain significant grain reserves. Advances in irrigation, crop science, drought-tolerant varieties and digital farming tools have also improved farmers’ ability to manage difficult conditions.

Recent analysis indicates that relatively strong global grain inventories and improved agricultural technology could help cushion the impact of a powerful El Niño.

However, these safeguards do not eliminate regional food shortages or price shocks, particularly in countries that depend heavily on imported food.

A Critical Period for Global Food Markets

The combination of climate volatility, geopolitical instability, fertilizer costs and transport disruptions means the next several months could be important for global food markets.

A particularly severe weather event occurring alongside prolonged shipping disruptions could put additional pressure on cereal supplies and prices. Conversely, improved weather, stable trade routes and lower energy costs could ease some of the current concerns.

For consumers, the consequences could eventually appear in the form of higher prices for staples and other food products. For farmers, the immediate concern is the rising cost of producing the next harvest.

Global Food Security Statistics

• FAO Food Price Index, July 2026: 131.1 points
• Monthly increase: 0.6%
• Year-on-year increase: 1%
• July 2026 cereal price increase: 3.4%
• July wheat price increase: 5.8%
• Fertilizer price increase, first five months of 2026: 35% year-on-year
• People experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity in 2025: about 2.1 billion
• Global population affected by hunger in 2025: 7.8%
• Potential rice production decline in affected El Niño regions: 20%–50%

The latest statistics suggest that the global food system is not facing a single crisis but rather multiple overlapping pressures. Strong harvests and food reserves can provide a buffer, but continued conflict, extreme weather and expensive agricultural inputs could make food increasingly costly and less accessible for vulnerable populations.