Washington Signals Dual-Track Strategy Toward Moscow on Energy and Ukraine
Relations between the United States and Russia are entering a complex new phase, marked by a mix of limited economic flexibility and renewed pressure tied to the war in Ukraine. Recent moves by Washington suggest a calculated approach that balances the interests of key allies with efforts to push Moscow toward diplomatic concessions.
The U.S. Treasury Department has extended a sanctions waiver that allows continued oil and gas transactions linked to Russia’s Sakhalin-2 energy project until June 18, 2026. While the project is based in Russia, the decision is widely viewed as an accommodation for Japan, a close U.S. ally that depends on Sakhalin-2 for a significant share of its liquefied natural gas supply. For Tokyo, the waiver helps ensure energy security and price stability at a time of ongoing volatility in global fuel markets. For Washington, it reflects a willingness to tailor sanctions in ways that minimize unintended harm to partner nations.
At the same time, the United States is signaling a harder line if diplomatic efforts over Ukraine stall. Reports indicate that Washington is preparing a fresh package of sanctions aimed at Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” — tankers allegedly used to bypass existing restrictions on oil exports. These measures would reportedly be triggered if President Vladimir Putin rejects a proposed peace arrangement related to the Ukraine conflict. The potential sanctions come amid claims by former President Donald Trump that a ceasefire could be within reach following high-level discussions in Berlin, though no formal agreement has been announced.
Moscow, however, has responded defiantly. During a senior meeting with defense officials, President Putin dismissed Western warnings about the risk of broader war, calling them exaggerated and false. He also criticized the European Union’s plans to redirect frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine, framing the move as unlawful and politically motivated.
Taken together, these developments highlight the delicate balance shaping U.S. policy toward Russia: maintaining pressure over Ukraine while selectively easing restrictions to protect allied interests. With energy security, sanctions enforcement, and peace negotiations all intersecting, the coming months are likely to test whether this dual-track strategy can influence Moscow’s calculations—or further entrench the standoff between Russia and the West.
