Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing increasing uncertainty over his political future after a key ultra-Orthodox party refused to recommend him for another term, weakening his efforts to secure a parliamentary majority following an inconclusive national election.

The decision by United Torah Judaism (UTJ), a longtime political partner of Netanyahu, has complicated the process of forming Israel’s next government. The party declined to endorse any candidate during consultations with President Isaac Herzog, creating another obstacle for the prime minister’s political bloc.

At the same time, Arab-led political parties have expressed support for Netanyahu’s main challenger, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, potentially strengthening the opposition’s position in the negotiations.

Election Results Leave Israel Without a Clear Majority

Israel’s recent parliamentary election produced a divided political landscape, with neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot securing enough support to independently establish a government.

Netanyahu’s Likud party emerged as the largest individual political party, winning 27 seats in the 120-member Knesset. However, his broader alliance of nationalist and religious parties secured only 53 seats, falling short of the 61 required for a parliamentary majority.

Eisenkot’s coalition of four Jewish-led parties obtained 48 seats, while two Arab-led political groups secured a combined 19 seats, representing an unprecedented parliamentary presence for these parties.

The results have created a complicated political situation in which smaller factions could play an important role in determining the country’s next leadership.

Ultra-Orthodox Allies Withhold Their Support

United Torah Judaism’s decision represents a significant setback for Netanyahu because the party has historically been an important part of his governing alliances.

The party holds seven parliamentary seats and represents sections of Israel’s ultra-Orthodox Jewish population.

Its position is closely connected to longstanding disagreements over military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox religious students, as well as funding and other community-related demands.

The party’s refusal to recommend a candidate does not necessarily mean it will permanently oppose Netanyahu. However, its decision has reduced the immediate support available to the prime minister during the government formation process.

Another religious party, Shas, has recommended Netanyahu, illustrating that the ultra-Orthodox political camp is not completely united.

Arab Parties Strengthen Eisenkot’s Position

Eisenkot has received an important boost from Arab-led political groups, one of which formally endorsed him during the presidential consultations. The other was also expected to support his candidacy.

Together, the two groups hold 19 seats, giving the opposition a potentially influential position in the parliamentary calculations.

However, the situation remains complicated because Eisenkot, like Netanyahu, has ruled out forming a government directly with the Arab-led parties.

Their endorsements could strengthen his parliamentary recommendation numbers, but translating that support into a functioning governing coalition remains a separate challenge.

President Herzog Faces a Crucial Decision

President Isaac Herzog has an important constitutional role in determining the next stage of Israel’s political process.

Following consultations with representatives of the parliamentary parties, he must select the candidate he believes has the strongest possibility of forming a government.

Herzog has until November 11 to make his decision.

He has also urged political parties to work towards a solution and avoid another national election, warning that Israel faces significant security, diplomatic and domestic challenges.

The selected candidate will then have a limited period to negotiate with other political factions and assemble a governing coalition.

Dispute Over Election Results Adds to Political Tensions

The political uncertainty has been accompanied by disagreements over the integrity of the election process.

Netanyahu has referred to an investigation into possible voting irregularities and questioned aspects of the results, including the performance of Arab-led parties.

However, Israel’s Central Election Committee has stated that the integrity of the election was not compromised.

Election officials have also urged political leaders to protect public confidence in democratic institutions and avoid creating unnecessary doubts about the electoral process.

What Happens If Coalition Negotiations Fail?

Israel could face another election if no candidate succeeds in forming a government.

Until a new administration is established, Netanyahu will remain in office as the head of a caretaker government.

Another election would prolong the political uncertainty and could further complicate decisions involving national security, economic policy and diplomatic relations.

The current negotiations are therefore particularly important for Israel’s political future.

For Netanyahu, the challenge is to rebuild support among religious and nationalist allies while preventing opposition parties from assembling a viable alternative.

For Eisenkot, the task is to transform growing parliamentary support into a workable coalition despite disagreements over cooperation with Arab-led political factions.

The outcome of these negotiations will determine whether Netanyahu can retain power or whether Israel is approaching a significant political transition.