Swedish voters are heading to the polls in a closely watched parliamentary election that could mark a major change in the country’s political landscape, with the Sweden Democrats seeking entry into government for the first time.

The centre-left opposition, led by Social Democratic leader Magdalena Andersson, entered election day with a narrow advantage over the governing right-wing bloc. However, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s coalition has reduced that gap during the final stages of the campaign, making the outcome difficult to predict.

The election has placed immigration, crime, household finances, national security and energy policy among the major issues for voters. Kristersson’s government has argued that its tougher approach to immigration and organized crime has produced results, while the opposition has criticized what it sees as a harder political direction and emphasized welfare and household economic pressures.

A particularly important question is whether the Sweden Democrats, led by Jimmie Åkesson, will move from their current role as parliamentary supporters of the government into formal government positions. Kristersson has committed to bringing the party into a four-party governing arrangement if the right-wing bloc wins.

The Sweden Democrats have already played a significant role in Swedish politics by supporting Kristersson’s minority government since 2022. Their possible entry into the cabinet would nevertheless represent a significant political development for Sweden and could further strengthen the influence of right-wing populist parties across Europe.

The composition of parliament may also depend on the performance of the Liberal Party. It must clear Sweden’s 4% electoral threshold to win parliamentary representation, making its result potentially important for the balance between the competing blocs.

The centre-left faces its own coalition challenges. Andersson’s Social Democrats broadly share positions with the Greens, Left Party and Centre Party on expanding welfare and public spending, but disagreements over immigration, taxation, nuclear power and possible coalition partners could complicate efforts to form a government if the opposition wins.

Regardless of the final result, the election is being closely watched beyond Sweden. A strong performance by the Sweden Democrats would add to a broader European trend in which right-wing populist parties have gained greater electoral influence and, in some countries, entered national governments.

With the race tightening in the final weeks, Swedish voters now face a choice between continuing the country’s current rightward political course or giving the centre-left an opportunity to return to power. The final parliamentary balance will determine not only who leads Sweden but also how much influence the Sweden Democrats will have over the country’s next government.