Thailand’s inflation rate accelerated sharply in October, reaching its highest level in several years as rising energy costs and expensive food pushed up the prices paid by consumers.

Data released by Thailand’s Ministry of Commerce on Friday showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.9 percent compared with the same month last year. The rise moved inflation above the Bank of Thailand’s target range of 1 to 3 percent for the first time since February 2023.

Higher fuel prices were the biggest contributor to the increase, reflecting pressure from international energy markets and continuing instability in the Middle East.

Fuel costs drive the inflation surge

Fuel prices jumped 29.18 percent year-on-year in October, accounting for approximately 56 percent of the overall increase in headline inflation, according to the ministry.

Officials linked the rise to higher global oil prices following attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil production facilities. A relatively low price level in the corresponding period last year also contributed to the sharp annual increase.

The impact of more expensive fuel extends beyond transport. Higher energy costs can raise the expenses of manufacturing, distribution and other business operations, potentially leading companies to pass additional costs on to consumers.

Flooding pushes vegetable prices higher

Food prices also contributed to inflationary pressure. Flooding in important vegetable-producing areas disrupted supplies and drove fresh vegetable prices up by 17.34 percent compared with October last year.

The increase illustrates how extreme weather can affect food availability and household budgets, particularly when agricultural production and transport routes are disrupted.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by a more moderate 1.58 percent year-on-year. This suggests that the strongest price pressures were concentrated in fuel and fresh food rather than spread evenly across the economy.

Inflation outlook remains uncertain

For the first ten months of 2026, Thailand’s headline inflation averaged 1.77 percent compared with the same period a year earlier.

The Commerce Ministry expects inflation to remain positive in November. It identified elevated international energy prices, higher costs for prepared meals and transportation, and weather-related risks to agricultural production as factors that could continue affecting consumer prices.

However, authorities believe some pressure may ease. Government measures to manage energy costs, closer monitoring of retail prices and improving flood conditions could help stabilize supplies and limit further increases.

The ministry maintained its forecast for full-year headline inflation at between 1.8 and 2.2 percent.

Households and businesses face rising costs

The October figures highlight the challenges facing Thailand as external energy shocks combine with domestic supply disruptions.

For households, higher fuel and food prices can reduce purchasing power and leave less money available for other spending. Businesses, meanwhile, may face increased operating and transportation expenses.

Whether inflation continues to accelerate will depend partly on international oil prices, the stability of regional energy supplies and the recovery of agricultural production following flooding.

Thailand’s latest inflation reading therefore represents a significant warning about the effect of global energy developments and extreme weather on the country’s cost of living.