Geneva: The global trading system is undergoing major structural changes as geopolitical tensions, government interventions, technological developments and shifting economic power reshape international commerce, according to the World Trade Organization’s latest World Trade Report.

The report says the multilateral trading system is at a critical juncture after decades of expanding international trade. It highlights growing pressure on established trade rules as governments respond to security concerns, industrial competition and rapid technological change.

Emerging Economies Gain Greater Share of Global Trade

One of the major changes identified by the WTO is the growing role of low- and middle-income economies.

Their share of global merchandise trade has nearly doubled, rising from 23 percent in 1995 to 45 percent in 2024. The shift reflects the increasing importance of emerging economies in international production, exports and consumer markets.

The changing distribution of economic power is creating new opportunities for trade but is also making negotiations more complicated because WTO members now have increasingly diverse economic interests.

Government Intervention Becomes More Important

The report also points to the growing use of industrial policies, subsidies and other forms of government intervention.

Governments are increasingly seeking to strengthen domestic production and reduce vulnerabilities in strategic sectors. While such policies can support national economic objectives, they can also affect trading partners and raise concerns about competitive conditions in international markets.

Artificial Intelligence Is Transforming Trade

Artificial intelligence and digital technologies are becoming increasingly important to global commerce.

The WTO says AI has the potential to increase productivity, expand digital trade and reduce some barriers to international commerce. At the same time, differences in digital infrastructure, regulation and technological capabilities could create new disparities between economies.

The organisation’s analysis indicates that AI could significantly increase global trade over the coming years, particularly through digitally deliverable services.

Geopolitical Tensions Add New Risks

Geopolitical tensions are also changing how governments view economic interdependence.

Concerns about supply-chain concentration, technology transfers, investment and national security have encouraged some governments to introduce measures aimed at reducing strategic dependencies.

The WTO warns that if such policies increasingly fragment international trade into competing blocs, smaller and developing economies could face greater uncertainty and higher economic costs.

Global Trade Remains Resilient

Despite the challenges, international trade has continued to show resilience.

The WTO reported that world merchandise trade grew by 4.6 percent in volume terms during 2025, while services trade increased by 5.3 percent. Around 72 percent of global merchandise trade continues to take place under most-favoured-nation terms within the WTO framework.

WTO Calls for Adaptation

The organisation’s assessment does not call for simply preserving existing arrangements. Instead, it argues that international trade rules need to adapt to a more digital, multipolar and interconnected global economy.

Issues including AI, environmental policies, subsidies, supply-chain resilience and geopolitical tensions are increasingly crossing traditional boundaries between domestic and international economic policy.

The report concludes that maintaining predictable, rules-based trade cooperation will remain important as countries navigate these changes and seek to balance economic openness with national priorities.