India Expected to Drive the Largest Share of the World’s Next Billion People, UN Projections Show

The world is on course to add another billion people over the coming years, but the increase is expected to be concentrated in a relatively small group of countries, particularly in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

United Nations population projections indicate that the global population, which reached 8 billion in November 2022, is expected to cross the 9-billion mark around 2037. Although population growth is gradually slowing worldwide, demographic momentum means the number of people on Earth will continue rising for several decades.

India Expected to Make the Biggest Contribution

Among individual countries, India is projected to account for the largest share of the next billion people, according to UN demographic projections. The figures circulating from the UN’s population analysis place India’s contribution at around 17.5% of the additional billion.

Nigeria follows with approximately 7.6%, while Pakistan is projected to contribute about 6.8%. The Democratic Republic of the Congo accounts for roughly 5.8%, followed by Ethiopia at around 5.3%.

Other countries highlighted in the projection include Tanzania, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Egypt and the United States.

The concentration of future population growth in these countries reflects major differences in fertility, age structures and population momentum across the world.

Africa Set to Become Increasingly Important

Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to play a particularly significant role in global demographic growth. The UN’s World Population Prospects 2024 estimates that the region’s population could increase by 79% between 2024 and 2054, reaching approximately 2.2 billion people.

Several countries are expected to experience exceptionally rapid growth. The UN projects that the populations of countries including the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Tanzania will expand substantially over the coming decades. Nine countries, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, are projected to at least double their populations between 2024 and 2054.

This shift is expected to reshape the global population map. Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are projected to eventually surpass the United States in population size, while Tanzania could become one of the world’s ten most populous countries later in the century.

India’s Population Will Continue Growing

India is currently the world’s most populous country, and UN projections indicate that its population will continue increasing through 2054 before eventually declining later in the century.

The 2024 UN projection estimates India’s population at approximately 1.45 billion in 2024 and around 1.69 billion by 2054. Despite this future growth, India’s fertility rate has fallen significantly over recent decades, illustrating how population momentum can continue even as family sizes become smaller.

This demographic trajectory presents both opportunities and challenges. A large working-age population can support economic expansion if countries are able to provide sufficient education, healthcare, infrastructure and productive employment.

Population Growth Is Becoming More Concentrated

The UN says the next phase of global population growth will be increasingly concentrated in lower-income countries, particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of South Asia. Countries experiencing rapid population increases may need major investments in schools, hospitals, housing, transportation, food systems and employment opportunities.

The UN has emphasized that demographic changes are sufficiently predictable to allow governments to prepare in advance. Better population data and long-term planning can help policymakers respond to changing needs in areas such as health, education, poverty reduction and environmental management.

Global Growth Will Eventually Slow Further

Despite the continuing rise in population, the broader global trend is one of slowing growth. According to the UN’s World Population Prospects 2024, the global population stood at about 8.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach roughly 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, when it is expected to peak. The population could then gradually decline to around 10.2 billion by 2100.

The demographic transition is already visible in many countries. More than half of all countries and areas have fertility levels below the replacement threshold of about 2.1 births per woman, while several countries are already experiencing population decline.

The expected arrival of the world’s ninth billion therefore represents more than another population milestone. It signals a continuing transformation in where global population growth is occurring—and places greater importance on how rapidly growing countries invest in people, infrastructure and sustainable development.