Brasília: Brazil’s presidential election campaign remains tightly contested as a new nationwide opinion survey shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro separated by only two percentage points in a potential second-round matchup.

The latest Datafolha survey places Lula at 47 percent and Bolsonaro at 45 percent in a simulated runoff. Because the poll carries a margin of error of two percentage points, the result falls within the survey’s margin of error and is therefore considered a statistical tie rather than a clear lead.

The figures underline the closely contested nature of Brazil’s presidential race ahead of the October election. Lula is seeking another term in office, while Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator and the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, is campaigning as a major challenger from the political right.

The latest numbers represent a small change from the previous Datafolha survey. Lula’s simulated runoff figure increased from 46 percent to 47 percent, while Bolsonaro’s figure moved from 44 percent to 45 percent. The two-point difference remains unchanged.

The survey also examined possible first-round voting patterns. Lula recorded 40 percent in the first-round scenario, followed by Bolsonaro with 36 percent. Other candidates recorded substantially lower levels of support.

Brazil’s electoral system requires a second round when no candidate receives more than half of the valid votes in the first round. Under that system, the two candidates receiving the most votes advance to a runoff.

The polling numbers are being closely watched because the election is approaching its decisive phase. Campaigns are expected to intensify their efforts to reach undecided voters and consolidate support among their respective political bases.

Economic conditions, the cost of living, public security, government policy and Brazil’s relationship with other countries are among the issues shaping the political debate.

Foreign policy has also become part of the campaign environment. Lula has previously warned against foreign interference in Brazil’s electoral process and emphasized the country’s sovereignty. The issue has gained additional attention amid tensions between Brasília and Washington.

Flávio Bolsonaro has meanwhile sought to strengthen his political position among voters aligned with the conservative movement associated with his family.

The Datafolha survey was conducted among 2,002 people between September 22 and 23. Its margin of error is two percentage points, meaning small differences between candidates should be interpreted cautiously.

Other recent surveys have also shown a highly competitive contest, although individual polling organizations have produced somewhat different results. These differences reflect variations in methodology, timing and sampling and do not constitute an election result.

With the campaign continuing, the political contest is expected to remain highly active as candidates seek to strengthen their positions before voters go to the polls.

The latest survey therefore provides a snapshot of voter preferences during the campaign rather than a forecast of the eventual outcome.