The ANC, which led South Africa from the end of apartheid in 1994, is confronting one of the most challenging periods in its political history.

The party lost its parliamentary majority in the 2024 national election, forcing it into a government of national unity that includes its long-standing rival, the Democratic Alliance.

Its support had already fallen below 50% in the 2021 municipal elections. New polling ahead of the November 4 vote suggests that the party could experience another significant decline, potentially receiving less than 40% of the national municipal vote.

For Ramaphosa, the election is particularly important. Although municipal results do not directly determine the presidency, they provide an indication of public confidence in the ANC’s leadership and its ability to deliver effective government.

Ramaphosa has acknowledged failures in municipal administration while urging voters to give his party another opportunity to improve services and restore public trust.

Democratic Alliance Seeks Greater Influence

The Democratic Alliance is attempting to expand its influence in major metropolitan areas, particularly Johannesburg, where municipal governance has become a central campaign issue.

The party has placed former leader Helen Zille at the centre of its campaign for Johannesburg’s mayoralty.

The city is an important political and economic battleground. Residents have faced persistent problems involving water supply, electricity, road maintenance, waste collection and public safety.

The DA is presenting its campaign around municipal accountability, improved administration and better delivery of essential services.

However, winning the largest share of votes may not be sufficient to secure control of the city. If no party obtains an outright majority, the DA will need support from other political groups to form a governing coalition.

The party also faces the challenge of convincing voters that it can build stable partnerships capable of surviving disagreements within the city council.

Jacob Zuma’s MK Party Adds to Political Competition

The uMkhonto weSizwe party, associated with former president Jacob Zuma, has become an important competitor in South African politics.

Its strongest political base is in KwaZulu-Natal, where dissatisfaction with established parties has created opportunities for alternative political movements.

The party is seeking to translate its previous electoral support into greater influence over municipal administrations, particularly in eThekwini, which includes Durban.

Its participation has further complicated the political calculations of the ANC and other opposition parties.

The Economic Freedom Fighters and smaller political organisations are also competing for voters, making it increasingly difficult for any single party to dominate every major urban council.

Johannesburg Becomes the Main Electoral Battleground

Johannesburg is attracting particular attention because of its economic importance and its history of unstable municipal leadership.

The city has experienced repeated changes in mayors and shifting political alliances since the previous local elections.

These developments have made it difficult to maintain consistent municipal policies and long-term infrastructure programmes.

Residents continue to raise concerns about unreliable utilities, deteriorating roads, sewage problems, crime and unemployment.

Helen Zille’s campaign has sought to make municipal performance a central issue, while the ANC is defending its record and attempting to retain voter support.

The final council composition will be crucial. Even a party that finishes first could struggle to govern without dependable coalition partners.

Coalition Politics Could Determine the Next Government

South Africa’s increasingly fragmented political environment makes coalition negotiations one of the most important consequences of the election.

The ANC and DA have already demonstrated at national level that former political rivals can participate in a shared government. However, cooperation at municipal level may be more difficult because local political structures have their own priorities and leadership ambitions.

Smaller parties could gain considerable influence if the larger organisations fail to secure outright majorities.

Political disagreements, leadership changes and competing policy demands could complicate negotiations after the votes are counted.

Johannesburg, Tshwane and eThekwini are among the municipalities where coalition arrangements could become particularly important.

The central challenge will be creating administrations that can remain stable long enough to approve budgets, maintain infrastructure and improve public services.

Public Services Dominate the Election Debate

For many voters, everyday living conditions are more important than political alliances.

Water interruptions, electricity problems, uncollected rubbish, damaged roads and inadequate sanitation have become recurring concerns in communities across the country.

High unemployment and crime have added to public frustration, particularly among younger South Africans seeking better economic opportunities.

These problems have weakened confidence in municipal institutions and increased pressure on political parties to demonstrate measurable improvements.

Businesses are also watching the election closely. Reliable electricity, functioning transport networks, clean water and efficient local administration are essential for investment and economic development.

A stable municipal government could help improve the business environment, while continued political instability may discourage investment.

Election Could Influence the ANC’s Future Leadership

The consequences of the municipal vote may extend beyond local government.

Ramaphosa’s term as ANC party leader is approaching its end in 2027, making the election an important moment for assessing the party’s internal political direction.

A poor result could intensify discussions about leadership, organisational reform and the ANC’s future strategy.

Party figures will also need to consider how to rebuild support among communities that have become dissatisfied with municipal performance.

The election may therefore influence the political environment surrounding the ANC’s next leadership contest and its preparations for the 2029 national election.

Conclusion: South Africa Enters a New Phase of Local Politics

South Africa’s November 4 municipal elections represent a significant test for the ANC, the Democratic Alliance and the country’s growing collection of opposition parties.

The vote comes at a time when traditional political loyalties are becoming less reliable and voters are increasingly demanding accountable leadership and effective public services.

The ANC faces pressure to demonstrate that it can regain public confidence, while the DA and MK party are seeking to convert dissatisfaction into greater political influence.

However, the outcome will not be determined by vote totals alone. Coalition negotiations and the ability of newly elected councils to deliver practical improvements will shape the next stage of South African politics.

For Ramaphosa and the ANC, the election is an opportunity to measure the scale of the party’s political challenge. For voters, the more immediate question is whether a new municipal administration can deliver reliable services, create better opportunities and restore confidence in local government.