A potential El Niño climate event could expose hundreds of millions of children to heightened environmental and humanitarian risks, according to new analysis from UNICEF.

The organization estimates that more than 347 million children across nearly 100 countries could be exposed to the effects of an El Niño event during the 2026–27 period. The warning highlights how changes in global weather patterns can have consequences far beyond temperature and rainfall.

Children Face Greater Climate Vulnerability

Children are particularly vulnerable to climate-related shocks because their bodies and developing immune systems can be more sensitive to extreme heat, poor air quality, water shortages and infectious diseases.

Extreme weather can also disrupt essential services that children depend on, including healthcare, clean water, sanitation and education.

For families already living in vulnerable conditions, another climate shock can increase existing economic and social pressures.

El Niño Can Change Weather Patterns

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon associated with changes in ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific. Its influence can extend far beyond the Pacific region, affecting rainfall and temperatures in different parts of the world.

The precise consequences vary from one country to another. Some areas can experience heavier rainfall and flooding, while others may face drought, heat and water shortages.

This geographic variability makes early preparation particularly important.

Food Security Could Come Under Pressure

Agriculture is highly dependent on predictable weather conditions. Changes in rainfall and temperature can reduce crop production in affected areas.

Lower agricultural output can affect household incomes and food availability, particularly in communities that depend heavily on farming.

Children can suffer disproportionately when food insecurity increases because inadequate nutrition can affect physical development, learning and long-term health.

Water and Health Risks

Climate-related disruptions can also affect access to clean water.

Flooding can contaminate water sources, increasing the risk of waterborne diseases. Drought can create a different problem by reducing the availability of safe water for drinking and hygiene.

Higher temperatures can also contribute to heat-related illness and create conditions favourable for some disease-carrying insects.

Education May Also Be Disrupted

Extreme weather can force schools to close temporarily or make it difficult for children to reach classrooms.

Floods can damage school buildings and roads, while drought and heat can create unsafe learning environments. In communities facing severe economic stress, children may also be pushed out of education to help families cope with lost income.

Maintaining continuity of education is therefore an important part of climate-response planning.

Early Action Can Reduce the Impact

UNICEF emphasizes the importance of preparing before climate shocks become severe.

Early-warning systems, emergency supplies, resilient healthcare facilities and climate-adapted water systems can help communities protect children.

Cash assistance and other forms of social protection can also help vulnerable families maintain access to food, healthcare and education during emergencies.

Climate Planning Needs to Focus on Children

The potential exposure of more than 347 million children demonstrates the importance of incorporating children’s needs into climate and disaster planning.

Investments in resilient schools, healthcare facilities, water infrastructure and child-protection systems can reduce the long-term consequences of extreme weather.

Governments and humanitarian organizations can also use climate forecasts to identify communities likely to face the greatest risks.

A Warning Ahead of the 2026–27 Period

The UNICEF assessment highlights the growing connection between climate variability and children’s well-being.

The possible exposure of hundreds of millions of children does not mean that every child will experience severe impacts. The actual consequences will depend on the strength and location of climate effects, as well as the preparedness of individual countries and communities.

However, the scale of the potential exposure makes early action essential. Strengthening basic services and preparing vulnerable communities before extreme weather strikes could significantly reduce the humanitarian consequences.