Global Extreme Poverty Could Follow Very Different Paths by 2050, World Bank Chart Shows
A new World Bank Data visualization highlights how the future number of people living in extreme poverty could vary significantly depending on the pace of progress achieved over the coming decades.
The chart, titled “Global extreme poverty projections,” compares historical estimates with two possible trajectories extending to 2050. The analysis is based on research cited as Mahler et al. (2026) and presents the figures in millions of people.
According to the visualization, the number of people living in extreme poverty has fallen dramatically since 2000. The historical series shown in the chart begins at roughly 2 billion people in 2000 and declines substantially over the following years.
Two Possible Paths to 2050
The chart presents two contrasting projections.
Under a scenario based on the current pace of progress, the number of people living in extreme poverty could rise considerably by 2050, reaching roughly 1.5 billion in the visualization.
By comparison, a projection based on the historical pace of progress remains much lower, at around 800 million people toward 2050.
The difference between the two scenarios illustrates how the speed of future poverty reduction could have a major effect on the number of people remaining in extreme poverty.
Progress Has Slowed
The historical line shows a particularly strong decline during the first part of the 21st century. However, the downward trend becomes much less pronounced in the later years displayed on the chart.
The visualization suggests that maintaining or accelerating poverty-reduction progress could be crucial to preventing a reversal in global gains.
Economic growth, employment opportunities, access to education and healthcare, social protection and resilience to economic and environmental shocks can all influence poverty outcomes.
Why the Projection Matters
Extreme poverty remains one of the world’s major development challenges. The contrasting lines in the World Bank visualization demonstrate that past progress alone does not guarantee continued reductions.
If progress slows, the global number of people living in extreme poverty could remain high or potentially increase. Faster and more inclusive development, meanwhile, could help reduce the number of people facing severe economic deprivation.
The projections are scenarios rather than guarantees. Actual outcomes through 2050 will depend on economic conditions, demographic changes, policy decisions and the pace of development across countries.
The chart nevertheless sends a clear message: the future of global poverty will depend heavily on how quickly the world can sustain and expand progress in poverty reduction.
