WHO Warns Global Health Worker Shortage Could Reach 11.1 Million by 2030

The world could face a shortage of 11.1 million health and care workers by 2030, with an ageing medical workforce and growing healthcare needs putting additional pressure on health systems, according to a new assessment from the World Health Organization.

The warning comes as countries are dealing with two related demographic changes: populations are getting older and a significant share of doctors and other healthcare professionals are also approaching retirement age. WHO’s latest workforce report draws on official data from more than 100 countries and examines how these trends could affect healthcare capacity during the coming years.

Global Health Workforce Has Expanded, but Shortages Remain

The latest figures show that the number of health and care workers worldwide has increased substantially over the past two decades.

WHO estimates that the global health workforce now exceeds 70 million people. Workforce density has also increased from 44.8 health workers per 10,000 people in 2006 to 67.9 per 10,000 in 2025.

Despite this progress, the increase has not been evenly distributed across countries.

Some regions have significantly greater access to doctors, nurses and other healthcare professionals than others. WHO says the density of medical doctors in the European Region is around 13 times higher than in the African Region, while the density of nurses and midwives is about six times higher.

This uneven distribution means that simply increasing the global number of health workers does not automatically guarantee equal access to healthcare.

Ageing Doctors Could Intensify the Problem

One of the major findings of the new report is the ageing of the healthcare workforce.

WHO estimates that almost one in four doctors is older than 55 and could retire during the next decade. The figure is even higher in high-income countries, where nearly one in three doctors is in this age group. The calculation is based on the latest available information from 122 countries.

The retirement of experienced doctors could create additional pressure on hospitals, clinics and health systems if younger professionals are not trained and recruited quickly enough to replace them.

The issue is particularly significant in countries where healthcare systems are already experiencing shortages in certain medical specialties or regions.

67 Countries Could Face Insufficient Staffing

WHO estimates that 67 countries may not have enough health workers by 2030 to maintain the level of healthcare needed for their populations.

The projected shortage is not simply about the total number of doctors and nurses. Governments also have to consider where health professionals work, which specialties they enter, and whether enough workers are available in rural and underserved communities.

A country may have a growing healthcare workforce overall while still experiencing shortages in particular areas.

Population Ageing Adds Further Pressure

The workforce shortage is occurring at the same time as populations in many countries are ageing.

Older populations generally require greater access to healthcare and may need more frequent treatment for chronic and age-related conditions.

This creates what WHO describes as a double pressure: healthcare workers themselves are ageing while the demand for healthcare services is increasing.

If both trends continue without adequate workforce planning, health systems could face difficulties maintaining existing services.

Richer Countries Also Face Workforce Challenges

The shortage is not limited to lower-income nations.

WHO’s findings indicate that higher-income countries, particularly several European nations, could experience substantial pressure because their health workforces have relatively high proportions of older professionals.

Some wealthier countries may respond by recruiting healthcare professionals from abroad.

However, increased international recruitment can create challenges for countries that lose trained doctors, nurses and other healthcare professionals to countries offering higher salaries or better employment opportunities.

International Migration Could Become More Important

The growing demand for healthcare workers could increase international migration within the health sector.

Countries experiencing shortages may attempt to attract qualified professionals from other parts of the world. For individual workers, international employment can provide new opportunities, but large-scale recruitment can create difficulties for countries that have invested in training professionals who later leave.

WHO has previously warned that international migration can worsen workforce shortages in lower-income countries when trained health professionals move to countries with greater demand and stronger employment opportunities.

This makes workforce planning an international issue rather than a problem that individual countries can address completely on their own.

Training More Healthcare Workers Will Be Essential

One of the key challenges for governments will be preparing enough new healthcare professionals to replace workers who retire and meet rising demand.

Training doctors, nurses, midwives, dentists, pharmacists and other healthcare professionals takes years. Governments therefore need to plan well before shortages become severe.

Increasing the number of training places can help, but countries also need sufficient teachers, hospitals, clinical placements and financial resources to support medical education.

Retention is another important factor. Training more professionals will have limited impact if large numbers leave the profession because of poor working conditions, inadequate pay or limited career opportunities.

Rural Areas Face Additional Challenges

The distribution of healthcare workers remains another major concern.

Medical professionals are often concentrated in major cities and urban centres, while rural and remote communities can experience significant shortages.

This can make it harder for people living outside large cities to access specialist treatment, emergency services and routine healthcare.

WHO’s broader workforce analysis highlights the importance of not only increasing the number of health workers but also ensuring that they are available where healthcare needs are greatest.

Better Workforce Data Can Help Governments

The new WHO report also highlights improvements in the availability of health workforce data.

More than 90% of WHO member states actively reported health workforce information in 2025, according to the organisation. WHO says the availability of workforce data has increased dramatically since its National Health Workforce Accounts system was introduced in 2017.

Better information can help governments identify shortages before they become critical.

Data can also help authorities understand how many professionals are entering the workforce, how many are retiring, where they are working and which areas require additional investment.

Health Systems Need Long-Term Planning

The projected shortage highlights the importance of long-term planning rather than short-term responses.

Governments may need to examine medical education capacity, recruitment policies, working conditions, professional retention, rural healthcare incentives and international migration.

Hospitals and healthcare organisations may also need to adapt to changing workforce demographics by improving working environments and developing systems that allow experienced professionals to continue contributing to healthcare for longer where appropriate.

Technology Could Support Healthcare Delivery

Technology may also become increasingly important as countries attempt to manage workforce shortages.

Telemedicine, digital health platforms and other technologies can help connect patients with healthcare professionals, particularly when specialist services are not available locally.

However, technology cannot completely replace doctors, nurses and other healthcare professionals. Patients still require physical examinations, emergency treatment, surgery, nursing care and many other forms of direct medical support.

Technology is therefore more likely to complement the healthcare workforce rather than eliminate the need for it.

The Global Picture Is Unequal

The overall global increase in health workers can sometimes hide major differences between countries.

WHO’s figures show that healthcare worker density remains strongly associated with national income. Countries with greater financial resources generally have higher numbers of health professionals relative to their populations.

This creates a difficult policy challenge because countries starting with smaller healthcare workforces may need to expand education and employment opportunities while also competing internationally for qualified professionals.

Investment in Health Workers Remains Critical

WHO has stressed that investment in healthcare workers is essential for stronger health systems and improved access to medical services.

Such investment includes not only training but also employment, retention, professional development and workforce planning.

The organisation’s latest report indicates that global progress has been made, but the pace of improvement may not be sufficient to prevent significant shortages during the next decade.

What the 2030 Projection Means

The projected 11.1 million-worker shortage does not mean that every country will lose the same number of healthcare professionals or that healthcare systems will suddenly face a shortage in 2030.

Instead, it represents a global projection based on workforce trends, population needs and available country data.

The situation will depend partly on decisions made during the coming years. Governments can influence the future workforce through investment in education, recruitment, employment policies and retention strategies.

The WHO findings therefore serve as a warning about a potential future gap rather than a prediction that every healthcare system will experience the same level of disruption.

A Challenge for the Next Decade

The global health workforce is entering a period in which demographic change could significantly influence healthcare delivery.

More than 70 million health and care workers are currently part of the global workforce, but shortages and unequal distribution remain major challenges. At the same time, a substantial proportion of doctors are approaching retirement age while healthcare demand is rising in ageing populations.

The coming years will therefore be important for governments deciding how many healthcare professionals to train, where they should work and how they can be retained.

If countries strengthen workforce planning, improve working conditions and expand appropriate training capacity, they may be better positioned to respond to future demand.

For patients, the issue ultimately concerns access: having enough qualified healthcare professionals available when and where medical services are needed.