Jakarta, September 28, 2026: Indonesia is facing growing environmental pressure as an unusually strong El Niño continues to prolong dry conditions, increasing the risk of forest and peatland fires across parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan. The country’s meteorological agency has warned that the rainy season will arrive later than previously expected in many areas.

Around 61% of Indonesia’s land area is expected to experience a delayed start to the 2026–27 rainy season. The main rainy period is forecast to peak around December in many regions, while the El Niño influence could continue into early 2027.

Wildfire Threat Remains High

The prolonged dry period has already contributed to extensive forest and land fires. Central Kalimantan recorded 5,283 hotspots as of September 21, followed by South Sumatra with 1,485 and West Kalimantan with 1,357, according to Indonesia’s meteorological agency.

Authorities have warned communities and regional governments to conserve water and remain alert to the continuing threat of drought and fires.

Agriculture Faces Pressure

The delayed rains are also creating difficulties for farmers. Cocoa production during the August–September peak harvest period has reportedly fallen by up to 15% because of drought, while Indonesia’s sugarcane farmers are facing delayed planting and lower production prospects. Rice and palm-oil production could also be affected if dry conditions persist.

Haze Spreads Across Southeast Asia

Smoke from Indonesian fires has also affected neighbouring countries. Earlier this month, hazardous haze was reported across parts of Southeast Asia, while authorities in Indonesia deployed firefighting personnel, aircraft and other resources to contain the fires.

Scientists and climate researchers are closely monitoring the situation because El Niño can influence rainfall, temperature and wildfire conditions across a much wider region.

What Happens Next?

Indonesia is preparing for a transition from the current prolonged dry period to the rainy season. Officials are urging farmers to adjust planting schedules and consider shorter-cycle crops, while authorities are also being advised to strengthen preparations for both drought-related fires and potential flooding when heavier rains eventually arrive.

The combination of delayed rainfall, wildfire activity, agricultural losses and regional haze makes Indonesia one of the key climate stories to watch as the strong El Niño develops through the end of 2026.