Indonesia is facing a continuing climate and environmental challenge as a very strong El Niño pattern prolongs dry conditions across large parts of the country and increases the risk of forest and land fires.

Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has warned that dry conditions are expected to persist, while the onset of the rainy season has been delayed in many areas. A report published on September 22 said approximately 61% of Indonesia’s land area is expected to experience a delayed start to the rainy season.

Rainy Season Delayed

The rainy season, previously expected to begin in October in many locations, is now forecast to arrive mainly in early November across much of the affected area.

The delay is creating additional pressure on farmers and communities that depend on seasonal rainfall. BMKG expects the wet season to reach its peak in many parts of Indonesia in December, while the influence of El Niño could continue into early 2027.

A prolonged dry period can reduce soil moisture, increase demand for water and complicate agricultural planning. Farmers are being encouraged to adjust planting schedules and consider crops with shorter growing periods where appropriate.

Wildfire Threat Remains High

The extended drought is also increasing the risk of forest and land fires, particularly across parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan.

Indonesia’s authorities have reported large numbers of hotspots in several provinces. As of September 21, Central Kalimantan recorded 5,283 hotspots, followed by South Sumatra with 1,485 and West Kalimantan with 1,357, according to data reported by Bernama from BMKG information.

Dry vegetation and parched peatlands can make fires easier to start and more difficult to extinguish.

NASA satellite observations have also documented extensive fire activity in Indonesia during the current dry period. Peat fires are particularly challenging because they can continue burning underground and generate substantial smoke.

El Niño Adds to the Pressure

The current El Niño is an important factor behind the unusually dry conditions.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures in parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Its effects can alter rainfall and temperature patterns far beyond the Pacific.

In Indonesia, the strong El Niño is contributing to reduced rainfall and hotter, drier conditions. Recent assessments have linked the phenomenon with increased wildfire activity, drought and pressure on agricultural production.

Agriculture Faces Growing Challenges

Farmers are among the groups most exposed to the prolonged dry period.

Delayed rainfall can disrupt planting schedules and reduce water availability for crops. Reports indicate that rice, sugarcane, cocoa and palm oil production could face difficulties if dry conditions persist.

Approximately 30% of Indonesia’s rice fields reportedly lack irrigation, leaving those areas particularly vulnerable to rainfall shortages. Palm oil production could also be affected by prolonged drought.

The agricultural impact could extend beyond Indonesia because the country is an important producer and exporter of several major commodities.

Smoke and Air Quality Concerns

Wildfires present another major environmental and public-health challenge.

Fires in forest and peatland areas can produce large amounts of smoke and fine particulate pollution. When winds carry the smoke across borders, neighbouring countries can also experience deteriorating air quality.

Recent reports have documented haze affecting parts of Southeast Asia, while Indonesian authorities continue firefighting and monitoring operations.

Government Increases Fire Monitoring

Indonesian authorities are increasing efforts to detect and control fires.

The government has deployed aircraft for water-bombing and cloud-seeding operations, while authorities are also investigating suspected violations associated with land-clearing practices.

Indonesia’s forestry authorities have urged communities, farmers and companies to remain vigilant and avoid activities that could ignite fires during the prolonged dry period.

What Comes Next

The immediate concern is that dry conditions could continue for several more weeks before widespread seasonal rainfall arrives.

Indonesia’s forestry ministry has warned that wildfire risks could remain elevated until late October or early November because of the delayed rainy season.

The combination of delayed rainfall, strong El Niño conditions, dry vegetation and vulnerable peatlands means authorities will need to maintain close monitoring throughout the remainder of the dry season.

For communities and farmers, water conservation and careful land management will remain important while authorities continue tracking hotspots and responding to fires.

The situation also illustrates how a large-scale climate pattern such as El Niño can interact with local environmental conditions, agriculture and human land-use practices to produce wider consequences.