The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is warning that the ongoing El Niño event is expected to strengthen significantly in the months ahead, potentially bringing major changes to rainfall and temperature patterns across different parts of the world.

According to the latest WMO assessment released on September 3, 2026, El Niño is now firmly established in the tropical Pacific and is forecast to develop into a very strong event before reaching its peak toward the end of the year. The organization says there is a nearly 100 percent likelihood that the phenomenon will continue through February 2027.

Extreme Weather Threat Could Expand

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Although its effects vary from one region to another, a strong event can substantially alter normal weather patterns.

WMO says the strengthening phenomenon could increase the likelihood of extreme heat, heavy rainfall, flooding and drought in different parts of the world. The impact will not be identical everywhere, and the strength of El Niño alone cannot determine exactly how severe conditions will become in any particular region.

The organization has also highlighted the importance of exceptionally warm waters beneath and across the tropical Pacific. These conditions are providing additional energy that could support further strengthening of the event.

Heat Risks Remain a Major Concern

The developing El Niño comes against a backdrop of exceptionally warm global ocean and land temperatures. WMO has warned that the combination of El Niño and broader global warming could intensify climate-related hazards.

Earlier forecasts had already indicated an increased probability of above-normal temperatures across many parts of the world. The latest assessment now points toward an even stronger El Niño, raising concerns about additional heat-related pressures on communities, agriculture, water resources and public health.

The previous major El Niño in 2023–24 contributed to the exceptional global temperatures recorded in 2024. WMO is therefore closely watching how the current event develops and how it interacts with other climate influences.

Rainfall Patterns May Shift Sharply

One of the biggest challenges associated with El Niño is its ability to redistribute rainfall. Some areas can experience unusually wet conditions and flooding, while others may face prolonged dryness and worsening water shortages.

WMO’s earlier seasonal assessments identified a typical El Niño pattern involving wetter conditions in certain parts of South America and other regions, alongside increased drought potential across areas including Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia. However, the exact effects of every El Niño event differ depending on its strength, duration, timing and interaction with other climate patterns.

This uncertainty makes regional forecasting particularly important. Governments and emergency agencies need to translate global climate information into local warnings that communities can act upon.

Early Warnings Could Save Lives

WMO is emphasizing preparedness rather than waiting for extreme conditions to occur. Advance climate forecasts can give governments, humanitarian organizations and vulnerable communities additional time to prepare for potential hazards.

Early-warning systems can support decisions involving evacuation planning, emergency supplies, water management, agricultural operations, health services and disaster response. WMO says its global network is working with national meteorological and hydrological services to strengthen forecasting and preparedness as the event develops.

The organization is also coordinating with United Nations and humanitarian partners to help countries assess and manage risks associated with the 2026–27 El Niño episode.

Agriculture, Water and Health Among Vulnerable Sectors

Changes in rainfall and temperature can have consequences well beyond weather forecasts. Farmers may face changing growing conditions, while water managers could have to prepare for either shortages or excessive rainfall.

Health systems may also come under pressure when extreme heat becomes more frequent or intense. At the same time, flooding and drought can affect infrastructure, food supplies and local economies.

Because these risks can develop differently across regions, WMO stresses that national and local authorities should use seasonal forecasts alongside regional observations and their own preparedness systems.

A Global Call for Preparedness

The latest WMO warning highlights a limited window for preventive action. El Niño cannot be stopped, but improved forecasting and preparation can reduce the consequences of associated extreme weather.

With the event expected to strengthen toward the end of 2026 and potentially influence climate conditions into early 2027, governments and communities are being urged to make use of available forecasts and early-warning information.

The message from WMO is clear: preparation must begin before extreme weather arrives. Timely warnings, coordinated emergency planning and informed decisions can help protect lives, livelihoods and essential infrastructure as the climate phenomenon intensifies.